New polls have found tightening races in two New Jersey congressional districts. In New Jersey's 3rd District, which stretches across southern New Jersey, one poll shows a dead heat between Democratic incumbent John Adler and Republican challenger Jon Runyan, while a second shows Runyan pulling slightly ahead. In central New Jersey's 6th District, a poll released today shows tea...
Republican Jon Runyan, left, and U.S. Rep. John Adler, right, a Democrat.New polls have found tightening races in two New Jersey congressional districts.
In New Jersey's 3rd District, which stretches across southern New Jersey, one poll shows a dead heat between Democratic incumbent John Adler and Republican challenger Jon Runyan, while a second shows Runyan pulling slightly ahead.
In central New Jersey's 6th District, a poll released today shows tea party-supported Republican Anna Little closing the gap on Democratic incumbent Frank Pallone, whose seat was once thought to be safe.
Three New Jersey districts now seem to be in play in the Nov. 2 election for Republicans, who currently hold five of the state's 13 seats in the House of Representatives.
There has not been new independent polling in the 12th District, but a Monmouth University Poll earlier this month found incumbent Democrat Rush Holt with only a slight lead over Republican Scott Sipprelle.
It's no surprise that the Adler-Runyan race is tight. Adler is a first-term representative in a district that has long supported Republicans.
His path has gotten harder since a newspaper report earlier this month that his campaign helped plant a fake tea party candidate on the ballot to siphon away votes from Runyan, a former Philadelphia Eagles lineman.
Both Adler and the third candidate, Peter DeStefano, have denied they collaborated.
"This is anyone's race," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. "Recent events — including the news of Democratic Party involvement in putting DeStefano on the ballot — have moved things more toward Runyan."
The Rutgers-Eagleton poll released today found both candidates getting 44 percent of the vote — and one-fourth of the voters saying they might still change their minds.
A Monmouth poll also released today put Runyan ahead 48 percent to 43 — just outside the poll's sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
It might be a bigger surprise that Little has closed the gap in the 6th District, where Pallone has held the seat since 1989 and routinely retains it by a 2 to 1 margin.
Pallone was up 52 percent to 45 among likely voters in the telephone survey conducted Oct. 22 to 25. The margin is closer than a Monmouth poll three weeks ago that had Pallone up by 12.
The poll of 647 likely voters has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Little has a huge fundraising disadvantage and has relied on volunteers from tea party organizations to help her knock on doors of unaffiliated voters.
"Anna Little's gains have come from a tremendous grassroots effort in her home region of Monmouth County," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge."
Unaffiliated voters in the district in Monmouth, Middlesex and Union counties turned out heavily a year ago when Republican Chris Christie was elected governor, and he won the district. But Christie was able to take advantage of tangible anger in the area against the Democratic incumbent, Jon Corzine.
Voters don't seem so unified in anger against Pallone, according to the Monmouth poll. More had a favorable opinion of him than not, even though a majority said the United States is headed in the wrong direction.
Also, the district isn't sold on the tea party movement, which stresses lower taxes and limited federal government. Just over half said they had an unfavorable opinion of the movement.
Previous coverage:
• Third-party candidate allegedly planted by Democrats files for bankruptcy
• Campaign issues between Rep. John Adler, ex-Eagle Jon Runyan heat up 3rd Congressional District race
• N.J. Republicans accuse U.S. Rep. Adler of recruiting fake tea party candidate
• Rep. John Adler meets Jon Runyan for first debate in N.J. Congressional race