Although neither man has declared his candidacy, the stage is being set for a drawn-out primary battle
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State Sens. Michael Doherty (left) and Joseph Kyrillos are jockeying to be the Republicans' choice to tangle with U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez.TRENTON — There are no campaign signs, no television ads, no babies to kiss. But next year’s U.S. Senate race is quietly shaping up, and could result in a drawn-out Republican primary.
State Sens. Joseph Kyrillos and Michael Doherty are jockeying to be the Republicans’ choice to tangle with U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, a Hudson County Democrat with a knack for raising money and winning elections.
Each is huddling with strategists, working the telephones and lining up supporters. Kyrillos has been stockpiling campaign contributions, while Doherty reaches deep into his network of conservative activists.
Although neither man has declared his candidacy, the stage is being set for a primary battle between Kyrillos, a close friend of Gov. Chris Christie’s, and Doherty, a favorite among hard-liners who has a history of bucking his party.
So far, they’ve avoided taking public shots at each other.
"There’s a dance that goes on," said Dale Florio, a lobbyist and former chairman of the Somerset County Republican Committee.
But Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, said a primary could be long and costly.
"It’s a classic matchup," she said. "What we’re seeing playing out is that ideological division that’s not just in New Jersey, but across the country."
If Doherty’s campaign gains steam, a primary could become an outlet for discontent with the governor, especially among a small-yet-vocal minority who feel he has not been conservative enough. And if Christie takes his usual hands-on role, a primary contest could also showcase the governor’s influence in his party.
Either way, most political experts agree that Republicans face an uphill struggle against Menendez, who has already collected $5.5 million for his re-election in a Democratic-leaning state that last elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 1972.
Doherty, a patent attorney and former Army captain who has served in the Legislature for nine years, brushed aside concerns that he wouldn’t appeal to the general electorate.
"I’m a fighter for the middle class," said Doherty, 48, who represents the conservative areas of Warren, Hunterdon and Somerset Counties. "And that makes up the largest chunk of voters in New Jersey."
As a U.S. senator, Doherty said he would push to limit the national debt, reduce overseas military interventions and rejuvenate the country’s industrial base. He is also ardently anti-abortion, while Kyrillos favors some restrictions rather than an outright ban.
Ideological candidates often do well in primaries, when turnout is low and party activists dominate the voting. Doherty proved that in 2009, when he beat the Republican establishment’s choice for state senator.
"Mike is built for primaries," said Doherty’s political adviser, Ed Traz.
Steve Lonegan, state director of Americans for Prosperity, a conservative advocacy group, said Doherty is the right choice because voters are looking for a conservative alternative to Menendez.
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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) speaks in Washington, D.C. in this 2010 file photo."With Kyrillos, they’re going to be agreeing so much, people are going to say, ‘Well, we might as well stick with Menendez,’ " said Lonegan, who lost to Christie in the 2009 gubernatorial primary.
Other Republicans insist a candidate with broader appeal, like Kyrillos, is the key to victory.
"From my standpoint, winning primaries without winning general elections are Pyrrhic victories at best," said Glenn Paulsen, a former Burlington County Republican chairman.
A congenial political operator and real estate broker, Kyrillos has been a state legislator from Monmouth County for 23 years and served as chairman of the state Republican Party for four years.
As a U.S. senator, the 51-year-old Kyrillos said he would focus on the economy. "We’re in a crisis and we face immense economic problems that threaten our country," he said.
Since setting his sights on the U.S. Senate, he has spent more time courting tea party groups.
"We get a lot of flack for our relationship with Joe," said Robert Gordon, a leader in the Bayshore Tea Party. "But he’s demonstrated an ability to look at things differently than he has in the past."
Other Republican candidates could emerge before the April filing deadline, but for now, the only one to declare his intentions is Ian Linker, a Bergen County lawyer. He did not return an e-mail seeking comment.
A potentially attractive candidate, John Crowley, a wealthy Princeton biotech executive, expressed interest, but then abruptly pulled his name out of the running.
And there is state Sen. Tom Kean (R-Union), whom Menendez beat by nine percentage points in 2006. A former campaign manager, Evan Kozlow, says Kean is focused on the November legislative elections and that "until that gets done, I don’t think he’s going to be making any decisions."
Republicans like Larry Weitzner, a Republican strategist and adviser to Kyrillos, insist Menendez can be brought down because his "big government strategy failed America and failed New Jersey families."
But the influential Cook Report, which tracks political races nationwide, considers Menendez a safe bet.
Brad Lawrence, Menendez’s longtime campaign consultant, said they’re not concerned with a potential Republican primary. "Senator Menendez is focusing on being the senator for New Jersey," he said.
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State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos discusses health care policies with hospital executives in his Middletown district office on Friday.As they compete within the Republican Party, Kyrillos and Doherty are tapping into networks that have long supported their political careers.
Kyrillos has deep connections with Christie and William Palatucci, the governor’s political adviser. In fact, he has the two friends to thank for setting him up on his first date with his future wife.
Kyrillos often accompanies Christie to fundraising events, where the governor praises the state senator for his work on behalf of the party.
"Many of New Jersey’s top donors and political leaders have urged him to run and pledged their support," said Weitzner.
Last month, Kyrillos went to the Union League, whose members fill the pages of Philadelphia’s social register, where he rubbed elbows with potential donors during a fundraiser.
"He goes into a room with strangers and comes out with friends," said Hersh Kozlov, a partner at a Philadelphia law firm that arranged the event.
Asked whether Doherty’s name came up, Kozlov said, "I don’t think that many people in the room would have known who Senator Doherty is."
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State Sen. Michael Doherty speaks at a town hall meeting in Teaneck to promote changes to a school funding formula. Sen. Doherty is a potential republican candidate to challenge U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez next year.Doherty is trying to change that. He’s been traveling the state promoting his plan to distribute money equally among school districts, sending less money to urban schools and more to suburban and rural areas.
On Tuesday night in Teaneck, he walked about three dozen people through a slideshow presentation while ceiling fans struggled against the stuffy heat. He never mentioned a potential run against Menendez, but afterward, John Mitchell, a Republican Bergen County freeholder, said, "If he has ambitions to run for U.S. Senate, he did not hurt his chances tonight."
Last month, Doherty was in Egg Harbor Township for a breakfast meeting with Liberty & Prosperity, a conservative group. Seth Grossman, the group’s executive director, said people asked whether Doherty would challenge Menendez. "People really wanted him to say yes," he said.
For Grossman, Christie’s crowd doesn’t pass the conservative litmus test.
"There’s no question that the people in our group have had enough of the Kyrillos-type Republican," he said. "(Doherty) seems to be standing up to that faction."