For the first time, New Jersey’s landscape is covered more by housing and shopping malls rather than forests, the real consequence of the "two most sprawling decades" ever, a report being released today concludes. The study, a collaboration between Rowan and Rutgers universities, analyzed land use data between 1986 and 2007 and estimates the state could run out of...
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A homemade sign promoting more open space on a farm in East Amwell.For the first time, New Jersey’s landscape is covered more by housing and shopping malls rather than forests, the real consequence of the "two most sprawling decades" ever, a report being released today concludes.
The study, a collaboration between Rowan and Rutgers universities, analyzed land use data between 1986 and 2007 and estimates the state could run out of open space around 2050 if the pace of development that took place in the sprawl years continued.
"There’s less than a million acres left," said John Hasse, a professor at Rowan University and a co-author of the report. "We have our last 20 percent.
But at the same time, some real estate observers predict the current recession and underlying demographic trends will radically alter development in New Jersey away from the suburbs, slowing down McMansion-style lots in the future.
Either way, the report has renewed the volatile sprawl debates in the state, already the most densely populated in the country. Builders, environmentalists and planners routinely square off as they confront the fewer acres left open for development.
"So these issues about where and how we grow are more intense here," said Chris Sturm of New Jersey Future, a land-use planning organization.
Builders contend the land use restrictions in the Pinelands and Highlands regions have compounded the problem, with large tracts of valuable real estate set aside for preservation despite market demand.
"We’re not running out of land in New Jersey," said David Fisher of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., one of the largest builders in the state. "If you look at the regulations and lands that are made off-limits, then, yes, land is less available than just a decade or two ago."
Relying on aerial photos of the state taken by the Department of Environmental Protection, the land use study estimates New Jersey consumed 16,061 acres every year between 2002 and 2007, a 7 percent increase from the rate of development between 1995 and 2002. Residential growth drove the demand for development, accounting for nearly 57 percent of newly used land from 2002 to 2007.
However, since the onset of the recession in 2007, construction in New Jersey has stalled, with about 12,000 building permits filed last year, down from the roughly 57,000 filed in 1986, said James Hughes, the dean at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy in Rutgers University.
He and other real estate observers say future growth may shift away from the suburban lifestyle to a more urban, dense setting.
Experts point to several factors behind the trend: younger generations now have fewer children and prefer urbanized settings; the recession has forced both builders and buyers to settle for smaller (and cheaper) houses; land is just too expensive now for more McMansions.
"This sprawl model, we no longer have a foundation for it," said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation, a real estate analysis group, in East Brunswick. "Households will need to be more efficient in their spending, which means smaller houses with shorter commute times."
But Rick Lathrop, a Rutgers professor who co-authored the report, said he thinks the when the recession ends the state may return to its suburban expansion.
"When the economy comes back on, I think there are these trends of people still wanting large-lot development," he said. "I don’t think we’ve seen the last of sprawl in the state."